The Historical Data Trap

As bettors prepare for Florida Alabama betting lines and other big sporting events in the near future, many sharps will do their homework, studying stats galore for hours on end. Anyone betting on the SEC championship game, for example, will examine last year’s 31-20 Florida victory to look for clues about this year’s result.

Usually, studying the numbers is a good thing, but there can be pitfalls if you read too much into historical data – particularly about team vs team history.

Take the Patriots and Dolphins’ AFC East rivalry in the NFL, for example. The two storied foes meet this week in Miami and some bettors will immediately think, “Gee, it’s great that these two teams play twice a year, as I can examine some long-term statistical trends regarding their matchup.” Those types of foolish bettors will see Miami’s 11-6 home record versus the Patriots since 1992 and get excited.

That stat is a perfect example of why you can definitely look too far back at historical trends. For many of those Miami victories, some guy named Dan Marino was the Dolphins’ quarterback. Some guy named Tom Brady wasn’t the Patriots’ quarterback.

 

The better stat is the recent data; the Patriots are 4-1 in their last five meetings with Miami and have won each of their last two trips to Miami, beating the spread in the process.

 

When making your football picks or any sports picks, it’s not a bad thing to look at team vs team history. But you should only go as far back as the key players on a team’s roster go. Ignore the pre-Belichick Patriots’ record against Miami; that information is completely irrelevant as all the players on that team are gone.

 

Remember to be careful when trying to trust history in your bets!

 

Simple Blackjack Tips

Online sports betting and online casino betting are very different. When it comes to sports, anything can happen. When it comes to the casino, it’s pretty much a bunch of mathematical equations – many of which you can prepare for.

 

Let’s take a look at everyone’s favorite game and learn some Blackjack tips so that everyone can sharpen their skill set.

 

1. One simple rule is don’t split your 10’s. If you are presented with two cards of the same value, you have the option to split them and get two hands going. When you have two 10’s, it’s best to stick with them. It’s unlikely you’ll do better than 20 in both other hands so stick with the 20 you have. If you have two 5’s, still don’t split them because a 10 can pair better with anyone that two individual fives can. Aside from those two situations, always split 8’s and 7’s if the dealer is showing a card of equal or lower value. Always split aces.

 

2. When you are looking for which table to sit at, don’t play at a table that has a minimum of more than 5% of your total amount of funds your playing with. You don’t want to get in over your head too quickly. Remember, slow and steady wins the race.

 

3. Keep an eye on what card the dealer is showing. Remember, you probably won’t win on less than 17 unless the dealer busts so take a card on any hand below 17 if the dealer is showing a king, queen, jack, 10, nine or eight. Stick around on any hand above 11 when the dealer shows four, five or six. Those lead to dealer busts and in those cases, you are better standing pat with a lower hand than trying to go for a home run and busting.

 

Those are some simply Blackjack rules to get you started. Most importantly, don’t forget to have some fun.

Last Updated on Wednesday, 28 October 2009 15:34