Sportsbook
The Historical Data Trap
As bettors prepare for Florida Alabama betting lines and other big sporting events in the near future, many sharps will do their homework, studying stats galore for hours on end. Anyone betting on the SEC championship game, for example, will examine last year’s 31-20 Florida victory to look for clues about this year’s result.
Usually, studying the numbers is a good thing, but there can be pitfalls if you read too much into historical data – particularly about team vs team history.
Take the Patriots and Dolphins’ AFC East rivalry in the NFL, for example. The two storied foes meet this week in Miami and some bettors will immediately think, “Gee, it’s great that these two teams play twice a year, as I can examine some long-term statistical trends regarding their matchup.” Those types of foolish bettors will see Miami’s 11-6 home record versus the Patriots since 1992 and get excited.
That stat is a perfect example of why you can definitely look too far back at historical trends. For many of those Miami victories, some guy named Dan Marino was the Dolphins’ quarterback. Some guy named Tom Brady wasn’t the Patriots’ quarterback.
The better stat is the recent data; the Patriots are 4-1 in their last five meetings with Miami and have won each of their last two trips to Miami, beating the spread in the process.
When making your football picks or any sports picks, it’s not a bad thing to look at team vs team history. But you should only go as far back as the key players on a team’s roster go. Ignore the pre-Belichick Patriots’ record against Miami; that information is completely irrelevant as all the players on that team are gone.
Remember to be careful when trying to trust history in your bets!
Sports Betting 101– Getting Value From Book To Book
When it comes to sports betting, every professional knows that you have to have multiple accounts. While it’s nice to have a one-stop shop, the reality is that if you want to win money long term you have to shop around for the best lines and you have get bet the best value when you bet on a team.
When it comes to betting on point spreads, you can gain anywhere from a half-point all the way to two or three points when it comes to betting at different sportsbooks.
When it comes to moneylines, searching around for the best price is key if you want to pay the lowest price for favorites and get paid the most for underdogs.
The key to getting the price is to have multiple sports betting accounts with different shops. If you only have one account, you are stuck with whatever lines they provide you with.
Some people don’t like opening up several accounts because of hassle and security concerns, but those are minute. For example, some people don’t like the fact that it takes time to open up several accounts, submit your information and deposit into each account.
While that may be an issue, the reality is that if you’re a professional player or if you are serious about winning money in sports betting, you have to shop around for the best line.