The Historical Data Trap

As bettors prepare for Florida Alabama game and other big sporting events in the near future, many sharps will do their homework and look for good sports betting advice- studying stats galore for hours on end. Anyone betting on the SEC championship game, for example, will examine last year’s 31-20 Florida victory to look for clues about this year’s result.

Usually, studying the numbers is a good thing, but there can be pitfalls if you read too much into historical data – particularly about team vs team history. It's like playing online casino games: sometimes you just have to play by what you feel.

Take the Patriots and Dolphins’ AFC East rivalry in the NFL, for example. The two storied foes meet this week in Miami and some bettors will immediately think, “Gee, it’s great that these two teams play twice a year, as I can examine some long-term statistical trends regarding their matchup.” Those types of foolish bettors will see Miami’s 11-6 home record versus the Patriots since 1992 and get excited.

That stat is a perfect example of why you can definitely look too far back at historical trends. For many of those Miami victories, some guy named Dan Marino was the Dolphins’ quarterback. Some guy named Tom Brady wasn’t the Patriots’ quarterback.

The better stat is the recent data; the Patriots are 4-1 in their last five meetings with Miami and have won each of their last two trips to Miami, beating the spread in the process.

When making your football picks or any sports picks, it’s not a bad thing to look at team vs team history. But you should only go as far back as the key players on a team’s roster go. Ignore the pre-Belichick Patriots’ record against Miami; that information is completely irrelevant as all the players on that team are gone.

Remember to be careful when trying to trust history in your bets! That's advice a poker seo /gambling seo consultant once gave me.